NIAGARA RIVER FLOW FORECASTING SYSTEM
by
Ken Lacivita¹, Ion Corbu², Francis Kwan¹, Randy D. Crissman³, M. ASCE

ABSTRACT

The flow of the Niagara River depends mainly upon Lake Erie water levels. While these water levels are generally stable when averaged over a weekly or monthly period, sudden changes in wind speed, wind direction and barometric pressure can cause dramatic variations in hourly lake levels and thus in Niagara River water flows. The prediction of these changes in flow is important to the real-time operation of the hydraulic generating facilities located along the river.
A Niagara River Flow Forecasting System has been developed based on a hydrodynamic storm surge model for Lake Erie. The system uses real-time and forecasted weather data from eight weather stations located around the lake, as well as real-time lake level readings.

INTRODUCTION

The hydroelectric generating facilities located along the Niagara River are very significant resources for both Ontario Hydro and the New York Power Authority. The combined systems have a total installed capacity of approximately 4,700 MW. Because of their importance, a series of models are used to optimally dispatch and…