FORECASTING OF NATURAL RUN-OFF AND MANAGEMENT OF THE GATINEAU RIVER IN PERIODS OF HIGH WATER
by
J.-L. Bisson, R. Brisebois, I. Corbu, F. Roberge, D. Tran-Thanh

Minimizing the probabity of flooding along a river valley while taking into account the requirements of power generation combines two different aspects that have to be considered in the operation of a reservoir.
This paper presents the mathematical models used for forecasting natural run-off and for the operation of the Baskatong reservoir on the Gatineau river, and in addition describes the flood prevention and warning procedure.

1. FORECASTING OF NATURAL RUN-OFF
The natural run-off of a basin is forecast from series of meteorological data transformed into series of natural run-off by a deterministic model relating the run-off to the meteorological conditions affecting the basin.
The main steps in the forecasting system (Fig. 1) are as follows:
1. Past meteorological and hydrological data from which the present state of the basin can be calculated, i.e. the water in storage and in transit.
2. The meteorological series are created as follows:
a) The meteorological forecasts (with the foreseeable deviation) form the early days of the series.
b) These early days of the series are extended for a longer period by using the real meteorological data from earlier years (Fig. 1)
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